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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

But the latest competition is distinctly different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and longtime underperformers improving together. In an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

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