A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
